PBH / colombia (active forums more▼ | travelguide | pictures) / post

Colombia's Uribe at Six Years: A Positive But Fragile Legacy

Anastasia Moloney | 21 Aug 2008
World Politics Review Exclusive

SAN JOSÉ DEL GUAVIARE, Colombia -- At a military base in this eastern town on the edge of the jungle, Juan Manual Santos, Colombia's defense minister, recently delivered a triumphant appraisal of the country's fight against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia.

Just a few years ago, it would have it would have been hard to imagine staging such an event here, for fear of a guerrilla ambush. "We have chosen San José del Guaviare because it symbolized the old Colombia, a country ridden with narcotraffickers, paramilitaries and guerrillas," said Santos as he addressed the country's generals and elite troops under a hot sun earlier this month.

Santos has described this year as an "annus horribilis" for the FARC and a historic one for the armed forces. Most analysts agree with the government's assessment that 2008 has been pivotal in the war against the FARC, leaving the rebels weaker than ever before. At its height, the FARC boasted around 20,000 troops, but few believe that the group can ever regain that level of strength.

Three members of the FARC's once untouchable ruling body have either died or been killed this year, along with seven key regional commanders. Ten guerrilla fighters lay down their arms every day, says the government. The audacious rescue of 15 high-profile hostages last month showed the FARC to be in disarray, and revealed that it is being infiltrated at the highest levels by state intelligence agents. "This year has marked the decline, the breaking up of the FARC, that we hope will lead to their demobilization and or their final defeat," said Santos in his annual Ministry of Defense report, published this month.

The heavy losses suffered by the FARC have made Colombian President �?lvaro Uribe the most popular leader in this country's history as he marks six years in office this month.

Six years ago, Colombians voted for Uribe because he promised to crush the deeply unpopular FARC. Unlike other leaders in Latin America, Uribe's popularity stems not from promises to make the poor richer or to bridge the inequality gap. Instead his populist message is about improving security by ridding cities of the guerrillas and curtailing their influence in rural areas. During his six years in power, Uribe's overriding achievement has been to make the majority of Colombians, whether rich or poor, feel safer than they ever have before. Some regions of the country that were formerly no-go areas are now considered holiday destinations.

When Uribe was first inaugurated on Aug. 7, 2002, the mood in Colombia was starkly different. Colombians felt besieged by the FARC and they had little confidence in the country's armed forces, which appeared to be permanently on the defensive. On the day of Uribe's inauguration, a FARC bomb attack on the presidential palace killed 17 people and served to show just how powerful the guerrillas were.

Today, however, the general mood of the country is optimism about the future and a renewed faith in the armed forces. "People have recovered their hope for the future and their belief in their country," Santos said at San José del Guaviare, echoing sentiments shared by many Colombians.

At the start of Uribe's term, dozens of municipalities had no state military presence and hundreds were without mayors or elected government officials. A weak state, which was absent from some provinces, had allowed the FARC to control vast swathes of land across Colombia. In some areas of the country, the guerrillas were the justice system and the sole source of authority. Though some such areas still exist, they are few and far between.

With billions of dollars in U.S. aid and U.S. military hardware, the Colombian military has been significantly strengthened during Uribe's term. Since he came to office, 21,000 new professional soldiers have brought the Colombian armed forces to 419,828 active members. Meanwhile, the number of elite anti-guerrilla brigades has risen from three to 22, allowing troops to patrol traditional guerrilla strongholds in the jungle and mountainous regions, where they never dared set foot in the past. Increased army and police presence across the country has helped to lower crime rates. According to the government, there were 23,000 murders in Colombia in 2003. So far this year, the figure is around 8,000, down by about half on an annual basis from five years ago. The number of people taken hostage has also fallen significantly: from 2,100 kidnappings in 2003 to 240 so far this year.

Like many Colombians, Alfredo Salamonte from San José del Guaviare credits Uribe with improving security and say it's why he would vote for the president again. "I feel safer with Uribe as president. The arrival of the army here has been a blessing for us. We couldn't stand the guerrillas anymore," said Salamonte, a street food vendor. "I'd vote for Uribe again because he got rid of that disease [the guerillas]."

But while he praises Uribe for his uncompromising stance against the FARC, like many he complains about the lack of jobs and rampant corruption. "I'm a displaced person and an old man but I don't receive any help or money from the government," Salamonte said. "We see little improvements around town and things done for the poor. Government officials take the money for themselves."

Such views are shared by other Colombians. According to a recent Gallup poll, while Uribe currently enjoys an 85 percent approval rating, 50 percent of those Colombians surveyed say he has not done enough to tackle unemployment, poverty and rising food prices. The cost of basic foods has risen by roughly 30 percent in recent months. Uribe's critics say more needs to be spent on social reform, while a significant chunk of the country's GNP, on average 4.7 percent, has been spent on the military during the last six years.

Uribe's centerpiece "Democratic and Security" policy is based on the notion that improved security encourages foreign and local investment, which in turn fuels economic growth and creates more jobs. While foreign investment is at a record high and increasing numbers of tourists are flocking to explore this largely undiscovered country, some economists warn about rising inflation and highlight that little of the steady economic growth that Colombia has enjoyed in recent years has trickled down to the poor.

One of the biggest challenges facing Uribe during his next two years in power is stemming country's worsening displacement crisis. Colombia has the second highest internally displaced population in the world after Sudan, according to recent figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. "The government's policy on displacement has been a total failure and it's not a state priority. The displacement problem is getting worse. Instead, everything goes towards a military defeat of the FARC, at the expense of other urgent problems," said Jorge Rojas, director of the Consultancy on Human Rights and Displacement, a Bogotá-based NGO.

While the government is keen to highlight that infamous drug kingpins have been recently captured, killed or extradited to the U.S., more coca is being grown in Colombia. Despite millions of dollars of U.S. aid spent on coca crop spraying campaigns, coca cultivation is on the increase. In 2006, 77,870 hectares of coca were grown, rising to nearly 99,000 hectares last year. While it's evident that Colombia's large drug cartels have been breaking up, there is an explosion of smaller, more regional drug mafia organizations, which continue to wreak violence as they fight over the enormous profits to be made from drug trafficking.

While the government has hailed the demobilization of over 30,000 right-wing paramilitaries and the recent extradition of paramilitary chiefs to the United States as a triumph and a step towards peace, the government also acknowledges that what many NGOs have long been warning about is taking place -- the re-arming of paramilitary fighters. Last month, the government introduced new combat units to stem emerging criminal and drug gangs, largely made up of former paramilitary fighters.

The prospect of peace talks between the guerrillas and the government appears to remain as remote as it did when Uribe first came to power. Lately, there has been speculation that a weakened FARC could be forced to come to the negotiating table. But for years the FARC has insisted that while Uribe remains in power peace is impossible. This message was recently reiterated by Iván Márquez, a member of FARC's ruling body. "A political solution to the conflict is only possible with another government," Márquez told the Venezuelan news channel, Telesur, last month.

Whether Uribe will run for an unprecedented third consecutive term is still an open question. So far, the president's high approval rating, a divided opposition coalition and a lack of strong prospective presidential candidates paves the way for another Uribe administration, should he decide to run again. Despite his tangible achievements in the war against the FARC, opposition groups and several prominent business leaders have expressed their disapproval of Uribe's efforts to change the constitution so he could win a third term. Analysts like Michael Shifter, vice-president for policy at the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue, warn of the dangers of another Uribe re-election.

"With the impressive results produced under his leadership, Uribe has surely earned a positive legacy for Colombia," Shifter said. "He is no doubt tempted to run for yet another term, and many Colombians are encouraging him to do so. But the boost in his popularity also carries a potential risk. The costs for Colombia's democratic institutional order are real. Uribe's audacious and take-charge approach has worked, but there may also be a downside if he goes too far in concentrating power."

Anastasia Moloney is a Bogotá-based journalist and a World Politics Review contributing editor.

By SUERTE GRINGO on Aug 21, 2008, 10:44 in Friendly Talkzone.

SUERTE GRINGO says on Aug 21, 2008, 10:47:

Colombia military atrocities prompt criticism of Plan Colombia

The number of civilians killed by Colombian armed forces has soared, activist groups allege, with many of the abuses committed by army units that had been vetted by the State Department. There were 329 so-called extra-judicial killings by the Colombian military and police last year, a coalition of Colombian rights groups asserts in a report, a 48% increase from the 223 reported in 2006, reports the L.A. Times' Chris Kraul.

According to this report, the continuing allegations against the Colombian military have led Congress to criticize U.S. military aid under Plan Colombia and have been an obstacle to approval of a binational free trade agreement.

Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont, chairman of the Senate subcommittee on State Department and foreign operations and author of the 1996 law that makes foreign military aid conditional on human rights compliance, expressed dismay.

"While the secretary of State certifies sufficient progress on human rights in Colombia, multiple sources report that unlawful killings by the Colombian army are continuing despite efforts by the minister of defense to stop it," he said in an e-mailed statement. "After providing billions of dollars in training and equipment to the Colombian army, we should expect better, including vigorous investigations and prosecutions of these crimes."

The United States Congress just approved a similar injection of funding into Mexico under a bill called the Merida Initiative, under which $400 million will go toward helping President Felipe Calderon fight powerful drug cartels and organized crime networks.

“If you're gonna eat your crackers in bed, you're gonna have to sleep with crumbs."

1 funny, 0 helpful.

romy says on Aug 21, 2008, 11:02:

We couldn't stand the guerrillas anymore," said Salamonte, a street food vendor. "I'd vote for Uribe again because he got rid of that disease [the guerillas]."

But while he praises Uribe for his uncompromising stance against the FARC, like many he complains about the lack of jobs and rampant corruption. "I'm a displaced person and an old man but I don't receive any help or money from the government," Salamonte said. "We see little improvements around town and things done for the poor. Government officials take the money for themselves."
____________________________________________________________________________________

well I guess that says it all... I wonder who convinced him that the guerrillas are gone? carry on Colombia you can starve in your illusion of security.

1 funny, 0 helpful.

catboy says on Aug 22, 2008, 10:08:

I tis very unsafe here in the past 6 years. I heard things were much safer in the 1990´s. I would not recommend Colombia because of the recent danger and corruption that never existed earler. Plus it´s more expensive then I first considered.

0 funny, 0 helpful.