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Colombia - recession finally biting?

Just returned from Barranquilla from one of my quarterly trips to colombia. For the first time, there really seemed to be visible evidence of recession. Three long-time businesses near the building that I stay in were shuttered, with the storefronts still empty. Other empty storefronts with "Se Arrienda" signs seemed to be everywhere.

The Villa Country mall looked like a ghost-town, with fewer than 30% of the available space occupied. (Of course, this could also be due to the recent expansion of the huge Buena Vista mall). Conversations with locals confirmed that times were tougher than was the case for many years.

Any others see similar evidence?

By phillyguy on Nov 18, 2009, 06:45 in Friendly Talkzone.

Darloup says on Nov 18, 2009, 07:02:

Phillyguy: I agree with you... I can only judge the situation based on Barranquilla and, to a point, it's true that things here are not as bad in Western Europe (and, I also assume, as in the USA).

But there are indeed some signs that the recession is starting to "bite". The rich may have less money, but that doesn't really affect them as they'all always have enought to spend. The poors will remain poor... It's the "middle class" I am worrying about: Those are the ones that really matter for Barranquilla's economy.

Better to have tried and failed than having regrets all your life about what you MIGHT have missed

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dguittar says on Nov 18, 2009, 07:39:

Is trade with Venezuela still stopped?

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yummyj says on Nov 18, 2009, 08:58:

Not sure where you live, but as a business owner and a guy who has talked wih many other business owners (Colombian) and seen the businesses around me close (Medellin), the recession has been strong all year long. Personally, I think it is based on fear fo spending because of the news from around the world. But whatever it is, the whole year has been shyte.

Just because you have been to Colombia, that does NOT mean that you are anywhere near an expert on the place. Sorry. Truth hurts.

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chingon says on Nov 18, 2009, 09:01:

What I find strange is it seems the housing market has stayed strong...in medellin particularly...unless i am naive to how much coke money gets washed in construction... but even though it gets washed you still need legit buyers...right?

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dwmte7 says on Nov 18, 2009, 09:53:

they're ligit buyers, chingon, but the funny money is still the same.

patriarch

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nine inch nails says on Nov 18, 2009, 10:39:

Yeah Medellin back in May when I visited C.C. San Diego thought it might have been because of the Holiday the next or following day but seemed very empty to me compared to past visits. Or maybe because the new Premium Plaza seemed to be doing very good. Too many new malls built in the major CO cities and the recession combined like a double whammy.

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MitchAlvarez says on Nov 18, 2009, 12:02:

yep... i heard fase dos is considering lowering its prices... the girls are having less money to go buy their BEBE extra small tshirts too. :( sad sad sad

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makopp5 says on Nov 18, 2009, 12:08:

now sales are getting better. For us finished recession in june. I`m talking for print shops.

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nine inch nails says on Nov 18, 2009, 12:08:

No not that part of CC San diego, the mall part! jajajajaja

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nine inch nails says on Nov 18, 2009, 12:08:

No not that part of CC San diego, the mall part! jajajajaja

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La_Huella says on Nov 18, 2009, 12:10:

Here I see it already turning around... the first half of 2009 was the bottom, things are really starting to ramp up now.

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excavator59 says on Nov 18, 2009, 15:33:

I was talking to an English teacher here in Pereira & she's had her hours cut at the Colombo Americano so think what you will.

Life is like a Pubic Hair on a Toilet Seat (Sooner or Later you get Pissed Off)

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goin_south says on Nov 18, 2009, 18:32:

a month ago, leaving New Orleans, going through Miami,... Bogota... ?
I didn't see any signs of a recession.
Everyone was pretty happy.
__________

And, who's waiting to for Black Friday, to go Christmas shopping?
Not here in my town.

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span_colombia says on Nov 18, 2009, 19:00:

I've seen no slow-down in demand from private students here in bogota.

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El Expatriado says on Nov 19, 2009, 01:30:

It already came and went in Cali.

Of course, for some people, there is always a recession.

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phillyguy says on Nov 19, 2009, 04:46:

Even Carnival business seems be down in baq. In August, I inquired about the price for an apartment during Carnival. I was told 400,000 pesos, but hurry because they are always gone by November. Last week I was quoted a price of 350,000, with no mention of a need to hurry.

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panthdave says on Nov 19, 2009, 08:36:

Recession is slowing down...but the question of all the lost jobs are there new ones being created right now I think NOT ...Who ever survived and kept there job is in good shape...

So what do all the people who lost there jobs do now....Very limited if lucky on full time jobs..Mostly independent contractors or part time no benefits...are getting jobs..

panthdave Miami

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goin_south says on Nov 19, 2009, 08:52:

a whole new error of entrepenuerialism, now,..... no?

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MySecondHome says on Nov 19, 2009, 10:42:

My brother in law works daily 10 hours aday and has not been paid a peso in 3 months. he's the manager of a auto related business. He is 51 years old and knows like all colombians that when you pass the age of 42 here you are virtually unemployable. so he's trying to wait it out....He has no electricity. gas only. His daughter sends them food money from Cali. He's in bogota......yes there is a recession and its strong..... with many many layoffs where my wife works. Many there over the age of 42 have lost well paying jobs....

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Lowell says on Nov 19, 2009, 12:29:

Cartago = Lots of closings of established and new businesses, many vacancies, one woman downsized her operation 3 times before giving up, sister in law lost job, mother in law gets less sewing contracts, one neighbor on 1/2 time, many living without services, many receiving less help from families out of Colombia, aunt in law lost one of her part time jobs. Don't see the recovery here at all.

Alfred E. Newman. "What. Me Worry?"

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panthdave says on Nov 19, 2009, 12:48:

There is no recovery....What is happening is the recession has stablized but no new jobs are being created for all the lost jobs..So again I stress what do the people who lost there jobs do and what about all the new graduates coming out of school too...Man...Get Ready...

Hope for the Best in 2010 there is a recovery and jobs will start opening again....but investors and big business need to feel comfortable with the future..I don't think shareholders,investors and businesses feel comfortable opening up old postions or new positions..

I throwing this out on the limb here but I think December your going to see more job losses or temporary layoffs for a month or pay cuts temporary for a month....There is no cushion in cash flow in any business right now..to cover overhead in the holiday month were most businesses slow down except Holiday businesses and Retail business...

panthdave Miami

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makopp5 says on Nov 19, 2009, 12:53:

we hired this month 2 persons.

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panthdave says on Nov 19, 2009, 12:56:

Awesome makopp5 but does your business depend on holiday shopping .......or your gross receipts/revenue go higher during holiday months...

panthdave Miami

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oneforyourmillion says on Nov 19, 2009, 14:46:

Retailers are holding their breath right now to get through December and hopefully personally make enough to get through the next year as they close operations. There are a lot of layoffs comming this January.

There is just a whole lot of businesses that are not going to carry employees through the dry period of January and Febuary when there really does not seem like any recovery in sight here. But retailers will stay open through Christmas and most companies will keep on employees through Christmas but this January? Heads are getting chopped off.

All that up in the high life you can have it. False rich, false friends and well a false life. Get down to the bear bones of it and you will find yourself, your friends and your life. Colombia can show you the way if you look...

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La_Huella says on Nov 19, 2009, 15:11:

How much you wanna bet? I'm taking bets right now!

I say FULL RECOVERY in early 2010 and the US continues to slide further into the mire...

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span_colombia says on Nov 19, 2009, 15:24:

any thoughts on the effects of brazil's supposedly booming economy? could that help out colombia?

also, the border closing with venezuela - is that hurting colombia?

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panthdave says on Nov 19, 2009, 16:40:

There will be no Full Recovery anywhere sorry....... No way....Now when you talk Full Recovery nobody wants to talk about all the debt accrued by businesses in the last 18 months...that needs to be paid back along with Current Expenses...That is going to hurt businesses so they will be very careful on there monthly payrolls...Small-Medium-Large Corp....Will take businesses 2-10 Years to pay back all debt accrued during this recession..Maybe even more...

panthdave Miami

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makopp5 says on Nov 19, 2009, 16:50:

panthdave
my business is not just holiday, yes for christmas the print shops have to produce more. But from july on we had a strong recovery.

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oneforyourmillion says on Nov 19, 2009, 17:31:

Colombia is about a year or so behind the US going into this, they are not going to come out of it before the US does. They are still going down the ladder, a long way to go to hit bottom here.

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makopp5 says on Nov 19, 2009, 17:34:

one,
no it`s getting better. Our clients most of them say now are the best month after a hard yeait

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La_Huella says on Nov 19, 2009, 21:20:

Colombia is NOT "going into this" .... just because the US jumps off a cliff they don't have to

N.B. Brazil is TOTALLY unaffected by this, looks like Lulo is not as dumb as people made him out to be... Colombia is wisely opening up more trade with Brazil, this will help....

I say 2010 will be better than 2009 here by any indicator.

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El Expatriado says on Nov 20, 2009, 02:44:

I think China and Makoppp will be the "Twin Engines of Growth" that will take up the slack where the US left off, and lead the world into a full blown recovery.

Also, La Huella will be helping quite a bit too, with all the Gigs he will be doing at the clubs in Bogota.

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La_Huella says on Nov 20, 2009, 06:22:

The US isn't all you guys think it is... the world will find a way around it much faster than you think. It's already been happening for some years now.

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oneforyourmillion says on Nov 20, 2009, 06:27:

What world? Europe is in the shitter far worse than the US ever will be. China is dependant on exports with its weak currency. Russia is a mess, Middle east is at war and well can't get out of the bombing themselves mode. South America is corrupt and dependant on exports.

What world are you guys living in is what I would like to know? Makkopp is one of those guys that will allow his emotion in business to drag him to the bottom. In a band in clubs is not a good barometer of sales in Colombia.

I import and sell high end electronic and other high end hard to get merchandise to Colombia. My retailers are really feeling it, I am feeling it. If your not feeling it then well you are not based in reality. If you can not for some reason take off your rose colored glasses to see what is going on than well maybe just pick up a newspaper.

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La_Huella says on Nov 20, 2009, 06:30:

The whole world is a mess. Always has been.... the US is the BIGGEST MESS OF ALL... your precious country that's supposed to be the greatest country in the world no longer holds that honor. YOU are the one with the rose colored glasses on.

I have other investments and things going on now. No problems on this end either.

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oneforyourmillion says on Nov 20, 2009, 06:36:

I don't live there. I haven't lived there for a lot longer than you. I do not allow my emotion and prejeduce get in the way of facts. The US is the largest econmy in the world hands down nothing else even close. Who then is going to take the place of the US? Tell me who? I want to know. Makes no difference to me either way I live in Colombia. But there is no one else. That is the point. If you want to make it like I am some patriatic nut job go ahead but I am only looking at the real world. You on the other hand really want to see the US fail, it is all you talk about. Your from Canada and those from Canada share that desire.

I am doing business in Colombia, the business I do would benefit from things getting worse in the US and better in Colombia. I just don't see it happening. .

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panthdave says on Nov 20, 2009, 08:37:

Funny also what nobody is even talking about is the money that was being sent to Colombia from the United States from families has to be dramatically down.....via W.Union/Money Gram......What I heard is that it was so much it drove part of Colombias economy all the money being sent back home from Colombians in the United States....

I wonder how that took effect in the last 12 months...

panthdave Miami

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La_Huella says on Nov 20, 2009, 09:09:

It's not that big a deal here.. in the Dominican Republic it's like the 2nd biggest source of income, here it's way down the list, the white stuff rules the day, and so does oil and a bunch of other things.

I certainly have no desire to see the US fail, I have two kids growing up there... I'm just looking at the writing on the wall. There's NO WAY it's going to recover. Already the fact is they are in an economic DEPRESSION, not a recession... here in Colombia we had a mild recession we are coming out of now.

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oneforyourmillion says on Nov 20, 2009, 10:28:

coming out of? Where? we are not comming out of anything. This is the high season for retailers, this month and next. If it appears that sales are up it is Christmas shopping and it is way way down from last year.

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Lowell says on Nov 20, 2009, 15:37:

If the USA is so bad, I suggest giving up your citizen status. Life is change or get left behind. The US is hurting and the people really need to get furious and shut down the whole country for a day to demand change. The US will someday recover to a stronger more pro- active World participant. Just my 2 cents worth rambling.

Alfred E. Newman. "What. Me Worry?"

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El Expatriado says on Nov 21, 2009, 02:33:

85% of the people in Colombia are in a permament depression, let alone recession.

In Cuba, it' s more like 98%.

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La_Huella says on Nov 22, 2009, 01:28:

Not from where I'm standing... and who's ass did you pull 85% out of?

Just had lunch with my friend who works at Unilago who I hadn't seen in a while... she told me sales are WAY UP from this time last year... and this despite local authorities cracking down on pirated software there...

Sorry it's so hard for you guys to bear but the recession is pretty much OVER in Colombia, and just getting STARTED in the US...

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oneforyourmillion says on Nov 22, 2009, 05:13:

I sell in Unilargo and I sell in all of the San Androcitos and can tell you that sales are not up over last year. They are up of course because this is Christmas but your friend does not remember last year.

It is a matter of national pride with some people to say things are going great! I imagine the conversation with you was something like how terrible things are int eh states and how wonderful they are here and she agreed with you.

True though they are cracking down on pireted and contraband items this year more than usual. So watch prices go up!

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makopp5 says on Nov 22, 2009, 05:39:

one
what products do you sell? perhabs you are not having the right products and that`s the reason why your sailes are not up.

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MaBarker says on Nov 22, 2009, 07:39:

There is much more valuable and accurate information concerning the Colombian economy on Pura....

http://puracolombia.ning.com/forum/topics/chavez-blowing-up-bridges-an...

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whitewidow says on Nov 22, 2009, 07:51:

I thought Pura Colombia had a meltdown and then shutdown.

Cassie eats cockroaches

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MaBarker says on Nov 22, 2009, 08:22:

It reopened, lots of disgraced ex-commenters posting there now. I'm opening an account there today.

Makopp and yourself are invited.

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La_Huella says on Nov 22, 2009, 09:50:

Dude, I asked her "so how have things been the past few months"... we didnt TOUCH on the states....
and she's been working the same job at the same place for 7 years... and works partially on comission... she's got a GREAT perspective on whether things are better or not.

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oneforyourmillion says on Nov 22, 2009, 10:56:

Clearly she does not but you beleive what you want.

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La_Huella says on Nov 22, 2009, 22:34:

She knows whether SHE did better or not compared to last year. I'm not saying 2009 was better than 2008 for the whole country!!! But for HER it was a better year, and frankly for me too...

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lanomad says on Nov 23, 2009, 19:53:

Here in the US, things are worse than most people realize. In fact, I am willing to bet that the country will go inter a deeper recession in the middle of 2010 when the government stimulus ends. I live in California where the unemployment is 12.5%, the most populous state at 38-million and 8th largest economy if it was a country on its own. This country does not make anything anymore, re-packaging debt and selling is not economic growth, as we all found out. The middle-class relies on credit to get by, just for the essentials. Also, the national deficit is staggering and it will only bankrupt this country in order to maintain its military industrial complex. I see a dire future for this country, much worse than people are willing to talk about.

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